A chat with bitcoinpasada on 2021/3/9
與 bitcoinpasada 在2021/3/9的聊天紀錄
I was just thinking about how it’s going to be pretty scary what happens over the next year or two.
我剛剛在思考接下來這一兩年將發生的事會有點驚人。
The more I think about it the more I believe in the super cycle Theory.
我越是去想，越是相信關於超級週期的理論。
The theory says that unlike the past two cycles when they were huge bear markets, Bitcoin will actually just keep going up every year.
這個理論是在說，不像前面兩次的週期我們經歷了巨大的熊市過程，比特幣接下來實際上會每年持續成長。
There may be smaller drawdowns but they won’t last as long.
可能會有小規模的跌幅但並不會持續那麼久。
There’s just too much attention on bitcoin and too many people know what’s going to happen after the next halving.
比特幣現在已經有太多的關注，太多人已經知道在下一個減半之後將會發生什麼。
So put that together with possible hyperinflation in the US dollar, the world is very interesting at this time.
所以將這些與美元可能發生的惡性通貨膨脹放在一起看，世界在這時候會非常有趣。
So we could see a scenario where later this year we get to two, three, or 400,000, and then it draws down to maybe half of that, but then let’s say just rockets right back up and goes up to a million in 2022.
所以我們會看到的情況是遲些今年當價格來到20、30、或40萬，然後它會下跌可能一半的漲幅，但接下來就會是火箭升空回歸並在2022年達到百萬。
If we do say that see that happen, I would say that it will be very close to the end. Hyperbitcoinization will be very close if we see that.
如果我們真的看到它這樣發生，我會說那它已經非常接近尾聲了。如果我們看到這樣，那超級比特幣化(Hyperbitcoinization) 已經非常靠近了。
Of course it’s still possible we see another big bear market. But when I look at the macroeconomic landscape, and all of the money printing they’re doing in america, and the massive attention on bitcoin, I just think we could go the super cycle route.
當然還是有可能我們會看到另一次的大型熊市，但當我觀察宏觀經濟景象，還有他們美國在做的那些印鈔票的事情，以及現在對比特幣大量的關注，我的確覺得我們會走向超級週期這條路。
And even today we’re still just at threshold level awareness of Bitcoin among the population.
即便是今天，社會大眾對於比特幣的認知都仍處於基本初淺階段。
later this year after we cross 100,000 and keep going up, that’s when the real attention will come. Nobody was talking about Bitcoin last year.
等今年遲些時候當我們跨越10萬門檻並持續向上時，那才是引起真正關注的時候，去年都還沒什麼人在討論比特幣。
I’ve been thinking a lot about Saudi Arabia. They really are the key to hyperbitcoinization.
我一直在想著沙烏地阿拉伯，他們真正是超級比特幣化的關鍵。
Because once the oil market uses Bitcoin instead of us dollars, that means the dollar is no longer the reserve currency. and I can’t imagine that the Saudis are so stupid they’re not looking at Bitcoin right now.
因為一旦石油市場開始使用比特幣計價取代美元，就表示美元已不再是儲備貨幣，我無法想像沙國人會這麼笨到現在沒有正在關注比特幣。
Of course they’re looking at bitcoin, but they’re worried about what would happen if they switched.
他們當然有在看比特幣，但他們會擔心如果轉換後會發生什麼事。
They need US support.
他們需要美國的支持。
So, in that sense, Bitcoin is already very geopolitical.
所以，這樣來看，比特幣已經非常具有地緣政治意義。
And I think eventually the Saudis will realize that there’s a bigger risk in them not holding bitcoin, then in them potentially losing US support for switching to bitcoin.
並且我想最終沙國人會明白他們不持有比特幣的風險反而是更高的，然後他們可能會轉用比特幣並失去美國的支持。
Yeah so I think what we’ll have to happen is some countries will have to start offering Bitcoin to buy Saudi oil.
是的所以我認為將發生的是某些國家會必須開始提供使用比特幣去購買沙烏地的石油。
I think we’re still a couple of years away from this. But things can happen fast. And if the dollar really falls. Which it already is doing. It won’t take more than like 5 years imo.
我想我們距離這樣的情況還有好幾年，但事情的變化有時是很快的。如果美元真的殞落了，而它也正在殞落中，這時間不會超過5年，以我淺見。
https://twitter.com/poorbitcoiner/status/1289220460844969984
•石油是可再生能源
地球內部現象所產生的廢料，石油的稀缺性是1971年後為了保持美元主導地位的騙局。
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
https://twitter.com/bitcoinpasada/status/1371084458489643015
真的這麼簡單嗎? 美國政府支持對石油的人為壟斷(OPEC-石油輸出國組織) 來確保高油價，給人稀缺的幻覺。 這創造了美國與
OPEC的依存關係。 美國得到美元的支持，石油輸出國組織(OPEC)以石油獲得美元而受益。
比特幣徹底改變了一切！
https://twitter.com/bitcoinpasada/status/1371084460641320960
如果這是正確的，就表示一旦OPEC國家(沙烏地阿拉伯?) 轉為使用比特幣，而比特幣成為石油市場的全球貨幣，石油將恢復為自由市場，石油短缺將落幕，比特幣海平面將升起大量的便宜石油? @saifedean 有什麼想法嗎？
